I don't agree with the pick, but I'm getting the feeling the Lions will attempt to follow the Atlanta Falcons model from last year. Detroit will be passing up Aaron Curry, the best player in the draft, and two very solid left tackle prospects. Not only will Stafford cost much more money, he'll also take more time to develop. Guys like Curry, Smith or Monroe should be able to step in day 1. Stafford may have to sit for a while behind Daunte Culpepper. However, the Lions also have to worry about selling tickets, not just turning their team around. Though I think they'd be better off grabbing Smith or Monroe and trying to get Josh Freeman later (who has a similar play style to Culpepper), I have a feeling they'll be calling Stafford's name.
2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith OT Baylor
With Orlando Pace officially gone, there is a huge hole at LT for the Rams. Lucky for them, the Lions pass on both Smith and Monroe, so the Rams get their choice. The Rams will look at Jason Smith as having a slight edge over Eugene Monroe because of run blocking ability. Though I think Eugene Monroe is a better overall prospect, Smith does make sense in St. Louis. After releasing Holt, the Rams will rely heavily on Steven Jackson and their running game to get back on track.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry OLB Wake Forest
Eventhough the Chiefs brought in veteran inside linebacker Zach Thomas, that doesn't mean they're going to pass on Curry...at least they shouldn't. There is speculation that the Chiefs may be attempting to switch to a 3-4 base defense, which presents a need for another inside backer. Even if they stay with the 4-3, the Chiefs would have a trio of Vrabel, Thomas and Curry, which is solid group. Curry will have the benefit of learning from two very talented and experienced backers and it will only improve his game.
4. Seattle Seahawks - Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
Seattle might be the biggest wild card in the draft. Their decision at #4 will determine draft boards for the other 31 teams and will probably send many teams scrambling. They could go in a variety of directions and if you've been paying attention, that's what they want everyone to think. Every day I hear a possibility of the Seahawks taking a different person at #4. I don't buy that they'll take Mark Sanchez as I think they're only using that as trade bait. There's a possibility of going with Michael Crabtree here, but Monroe is a much safer pick. With Walter Jones still recovering from microfracture surgery, the LT spot is clouded with questions. Even if Jones returns, he doesn't have many years left. Monroe might be the best all around LT prospect in the draft and will be a great, and safe, addition to the Seahawks.
5. Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo DE Texas
With reports circulating that the Browns weren't impressed with Crabtree's "diva" attitude, new head coach Eric Mangini goes with what he knows; defense. Orakpo will be a solid pass rusher opposite Kamerion Wimbley and can be a replacement for McGinnest at the OLB spot. The Browns will have to get after the passer in the AFCN, and Orakpo has the skills to make that happen.
6. Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith OT Alabama
I initially had the Bengals going with a pass rusher here, but there is a good possibility that a top rated guy will slip into the top of round 2. I'm hearing that the Bengals love Andre Smith and with since they let Andrews leave in free agency, they're in need of a LT. Andre Smith is an aggressive player that does a great job in both run and pass blocking. If the Bengals want to win any games, they'll have to keep Carson Palmer standing up. The Bengals know they aren't in a position to win now, so they'll start rebuilding from the trenches - out.
7. Oakland Raiders - Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
I actually think if Andre Smith is available here, the Raiders will consider him with this pick. However, Al Davis loves play makers at the skill positions and Crabtree is just that. Crabtree will be relied on as the go to guy for young QB Jamarcus Russell. The Raiders could go with Jeremy Maclin over Crabtree due to his speed, but Crabtree is the best WR on the board and Davis won't be able to pass him up.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - BJ Raji DT Boston College
I certainly don't buy into the hype about Mark Sanchez landing in Jacksonville. Yes, Jack Del Rio is a USC guy and the Jags have taken a close look at Sanchez, but Del Rio also needs to win NOW to save his job. Adding a developmental quarterback with your first round pick won't do it. The Jags will hope that Crabtree or Maclin fall to #8, but I don't see it happening. So they'll look to the defensive side of the ball and sure up their interior line. The Jaguars defense has struggled ever since Marcus Stroud left in free agency. They have some young pass rushing talent, trading up last year for Derrick Harvey. Adding a guy like Raji to the middle will demand double teams, taking blockers away from their edge rushers.
9. Green Bay Packers - Tyson Jackson DE LSU
If the Packers are serious about switching to a 3-4 defense, which they are, they're going to need a strong DE to set the tie up blockers. Jackson's stock has been rising lately and the Packers will be glad to take him here. They could go with an edge rusher like Everetty Brown or Aaron Maybin, but there are not other true 5 techniques as good as Jackson in this draft.
10. San Fransisco 49ers - Mark Sanchez QB USC
New head coach Mike Singletary has time to get the 49ers on track, so he takes HIS quarterback here. The Niners have stated that they'll have an open QB competition between Smith and Hill, and I think there will be. However, they'll add a 3rd QB into that equation in Mark Sanchez. Mark won't have to start right away in San Fransisco, but Singletary will probably put him in as soon as possible. The Niner would probably like to grab BJ Raji here as they haven't had a true NT for their 3-4, but he's off the board. More than likely, Sanchez will not just be a player that fills a need, but will probably be the highest ranking player on the Niners board. If they don't go with Sanchez, they could look to add a solid edge rusher in Everette Brown here.
11. Buffalo Bills - Michael Oher OT Mississippi
Now that the Bills traded Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters, they can't afford to miss out on a high quality LT in round one. If they wait until the 28th pick, they can hope Eben Britton will be there, or reach for William Beatty. Instead, the Bills will take Michael Oher a little bit higher than expected in order to lock in a talented LT prospect. The Bills will address other areas of need later in the draft.
12. Denver Broncos - Brian Cushing OLB USC
There's a big reason the Broncos traded Cutler...they need all the draft picks they can get to fix their miserable defense. After missing out on Tyson Jackson, the Broncos will look for a play making LB first. They could go with Cushing's teammate, Maualuga, but Cushing is a more versatile player.
13. Washington Redskins - Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
The first surprise pick in the new mock draft! Dan Snyder is known for being a bit risky with draft picks and also loves physical specimens. Michael Johnson is your prototypical 4-3 DE and could wind up being a great replacement for Jason Taylor. Johnson has a great first step and gets to the pass rusher in a hurry. Most have Johnson rated as a 2nd round prospect because of trouble against the rush. However, how is that any different than Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin, both rated as top 20 picks? The only difference is Johnson has the best combination of size and speed, so he should be rated higher. NFL teams covet quality pass rushers and Johnson fits that bill. I think many will be surprised on draft day when Johnson's name is called earlier than some analysts expect...but I expect it. The Redskins would take Michael Oher if available here, but Johnson won't fall past Tampa Bay.
14. New Orleans Saints - Chris "Beanie" Wells RB Ohio State
True, the weakest part of the Saints team as a whole has been their secondary. However, they've been the most successful when Deuce McAlister was at full strength. The Saints will need to get their running game in order if they want to compete in the NFC South and Wells will do that for them. If the Saints do go with a defensive pick here, look for Malcolm Jenkins.
15. Houston Texans - Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State
Houston is very happy that Jenkins lasts this long in the draft. The Texans would love to add a versatile playmaker in their secondary, which is a must when you play the Colts twice a year. Jenkins can fill in at the nickel at first or at safety, but I ultimately think his true position will be at corner.
16. San Diego Chargers - Rey Maualuga ILB USC
The biggest hole for the Chargers is certainly at defensive end, and they'd probably be quite upset that Tyson Jackson is gone at this pick. They could reach for Robert Ayers here, hoping he could put on some weight and play the 3-4 DE spot, but I don't see it happening. At this point, they're relegated to taking the best player available, and that should be Rey Maualuga. Maualuga would play inside in their 3-4 scheme, which is probably the best fit for him anyway. Having a big NT in front of him and strong outside pass rushers, Maualuga will be able to roam and make tackles.
**posted 4/24** -FINAL-